Monday 19 March 2012

Columbian Oil The next Saudi Arabia 3 of 3

Ok, so we know the world's thirst for hydrocarbons is still growing and that new oil fields in Columbia present themselves as viable sources that are close to home. So what is next? The spin off from this, I'm hoping, will give all of us an optimistic look at the future. I'm talking about the Green tech revolution. But, don't think this revolution is going to start in North America. Green technology is going to come out of Asia because, in my opinion, and game theorists would probably agree, it's their best move.

You'll see Chinese companies making 
bids for Canadian and Russian oil 
companies out of necessity,  Husky 
has already been predicted to go.

North America is dealing with an infrastructure that has never evolved past petroleum.  This will make it incredibly difficult to change the moneymakers and policy shakers  minds about alternative fuels regardless of the fact that we have viable technologies to start a transition away from internal combustion. The infrastructure is just too well rooted into our economy that we can't just stop using oil. It has to be phased out very slowly and could take another century. Our dependance on black tea as I have anticipated in the past is going to cause two things to happen.

The first is, everyone is going to continue to scour the world for more oil. You'll see Chinese and Indian companies making bids for Canadian and Russian oil companies out of necessity,  Husky has already been predicted to go Panda on us. It's just another chess piece moved across the board, exactly how I mentioned in my last blog about the application of game theory. Look at what China has and look at what they will need. Then do the same for India, The US, Europe and you'll quickly see where all the pieces are going before they get there.

The second event that will happen is already starting to occur. China, for the 4th year in a row has contributed more GW(Gigawatts) of clean energy then anyone else in the world creating 18Gigawatts compared to Europe's silver medal performance of 10GW. Believe it or not, the green energy sector is growing and fast -just not in our backyard. The UK Telegraph also reported that China is investing
$1.7 Trillion dollars into green energy and renewables in the next five years. So what does all this mean?

China knows that if they go down a path of petroleum as their primary energy source it will eventually lead to conflict and are planning to avoid it. However, it takes current technology to build new technology so in the mean time China is going to need oil, but not to just for fuel and they most certainly won't need it for more then a century like Uncle Sam did to get to the next evolution in energy. They need it to create the future.

Americas grip on oil will last well beyond 2050 as North America slowly accepts the transition from internal combustion to an alternative fuel source. What will really slow the transition here is the emergence of green tech in Asia. As They develop better green technologies they will require less oil. America can then scoop it up for cheap as demand will go down. But ironically, continuing with a petroleum based energy source over a green one isn't America's best play. The US has to do both because if they are dependant on cheap gas they'll be so far behind in the future. If they focus on green tech now their economy won't be able to handle the change. So yes the future is very bright, just not over our skies.










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